And based of most of the conversations we are having with our US clients the situation in America is very dire, even with the low unemployment numbers.
The amount of both personal and business bankruptcy filings in August and September of 2022 are true the roof!.
And we have seen nothing yet.
The worst is yet to come and it will stay with us for a few years at least.
Many younger people born between 1992 and 2002 have never seen this type of recession ever.
And we have to be honest as always and say that neither have we, even if we remember the 70s,80s,90s and 2008 crashes well!.
This is a super recession on steroids, that we are seeing right now.
We have the energy crisis of the 70s, the financial crisis of the the 90s and the real-estate crisis of the 2008.
This comes with a combination of America being more divided than ever and a raging war in Ukraine.
To top it all off we have a Chinese banking and real-estate crisis of a size we never seen in our lifetime before.
Our clients keeps asking the same questions every week?, what is happening and what will happen?.
No one can be sure of what will happen in detail.
But what can be said is that we know already now what will happen in the upcoming 12 months time when we talk about prices and finances.
Here is a check list on what will happen in the next 12 months time in the US as an example.
No1: All overpriced homes will drop between 20-50% in price, and all overpriced rentals will drop 30-50%.
People will start to leave blue states due to the high crime rates, which will also bring down real-estate prices across the board.
No2: Grocery prices will continue to rise, but more slowly and will stabilize in November of 2022.
But food cost will be a huge issues working and middle income families, and elderly people on a fixed income.
No3: The crime rates will continue up everywhere, across the nation, but mainly in the blue states.
No4: We will start to see a tsunami of foreclosures all over America and that will keep going on for a longer period of time.
No5: We are are already seeing huge amounts of cars being repoed on a daily basis.
No6: Companies will stop hiring and start firing in December of 2022.
We will see a lot of companies that survived the Covid-19 pandemic true loans, close their doors for good in 2022 and in 2023.
No7: Small to medium sized businesses will have issues with getting funding from banks and this will allow the corporate raiders to come in and swoop up shares in many companies for a lower price than the estimated market value.
No8: Poverty!, this will bring the divorce rate way above the todays 53%, maybe as high as 63% and money usually is a big thing when we talk about the reasons behind a divorce.
So broken families will be seen everywhere across the nation
No9: Wall street and your 401K will drop another 20% easily, so be prepared to work an extra 5-7 years from when you planned to actually retire for real!.
No10: Energy prices like gas and heating will stay high until the US goes back to Trumps energy policies again.
What can you do?
If you can avoid a few of these issues like foreclosure, bankruptcy that would be good for you.
The biggest thing you can do for yourself and your family is to make sure you keep your regular job and see if you can find a second and third job as a side hustle.
Another thing you can do is to stop using your credit cards and pay everything cash to avoid the 20+ interest rates.
The third thing you can do if you have a few rooms to many in your house is to find a relative or a friend who can rent 1 or 2 of those to help out with your mortgage.
So regardless if you are a business owner or an employee, buckle up it will be a very bumpy ride for the next 2 years time at least.
If you want to see the inflation chart you find it here.
So here we are in August 2022 and the real-estate crash is here.
We have been warning about this for over 2 years time, we did not count on the fed to start printing money they way the did in 2020 and in 2021.
But for our clients and readers this is no surprise, what so ever.
We knew this day was coming and here it is!.
The interest rates in August 2022 is now at a 5.5% level, we believe they will end up closer to 9% by the end of 2023.
The last time we had this kind of superinflation was under Jimmy Carter and the rates where as high as 17%.
That will not happen this time around.
But for a home owner with a mortgage that will increase to 9% from maybe 4.5% in 2020 that is a big deal!.
The foreclosure rates where 700% higher in July 2022 than they where in July 2021.
And we think that the housing crash of 2007-2009 was nothing to write home about, compare that we will see in 2023.
This will go fast and it will kick off for real in October of 2022.
We call it the perfect storm because everything is going to hell in a bucket and it is going so fast and so wide.
We warned our clients and readers about the crypto and NFT crash already in January of 2022, it was the right read of the market.
Usually when you grandmother is buying crypto you should sell, because the edge is gone.
And this is exactly what happened, to many suckers bought the bitcoin at 60K$ and it dropped down to 20K$.
The second big issue is that salaries have gone up around 3% and the inflation is closer to 15%.
It is not 9%, look at energy and gas, not to mention food and shipping , so the 15% is closer to the reality.
What also worries a lot is that in July of 2022 we have started to see a lot of layoffs in better paying companies.
This will then trickle down to not so well paying companies in September when the middle class will no longer use a lot of services.
In 2023 and in 2024 you will have the opportunity of a lifetime to buy your dream home for 40-55% off the current market listing price.
You will see 900.000 dollar homes drop to 450.000 dollars in many areas when there will be 30% foreclosures in one area.
You have to also understand that many properties have gone up 40% in price in the past 5 years time.
So this is a market correction that is coming, and if you are some what liquid and can afford to put down 30% and negotiate a mortgage rate of 6%, you are good as gold.
But you need a strong credit score if you are goanna pull this off.
Pay off your credit cards and build your credit score even more than ever during 2022 and 2023, there will be a lot of good deals out there in 2023 and in 2024 for those who have access to cash or loans!.
We have seen several watch brokers offer 40% off on watches in July of 2022 compare to April 2022.
And this goes hand in hand with the crypto and Nft:s crash not to mention stock market taking a nose dive in 2022.
There is no lose money in peoples pockets anymore after all these market corrections that came about in 2022.
For our small business owners we have told them from the beginning of this year to stay as liquid as possible.
Small business owners will get trouble getting business loans starting now in August 2022.
And making sure you dont offer to much credit to your customers is a good rule of thumb at the moment.
You will se companies that you believe is liquid today go under in 2023.
There are way to many companies that are living on cheap credit and getting investors to offer more cheap cash to stay afloat.
KLARNA is a good example of a company who has lost 80% of its valuation in less than one year!.
And they are offering a (cheap) credit option for people wanting to to buy products on invoice(credit) even if your credit score is not so high to begin with.
So even big companies will face the music this year.
Our advise to you looking to buy a home right now is to wait a year and then see how much you can save by holding off for one year.
If you have already bought a home make sure you can pay your mortgage, let your cars go and everything-else but hang on to your home.
Even if you have to get your mother in law to live with you and your cousin who rents somewhere at the moment, he can now rent a room or two from you.
Privacy is a luxury you can not afford if your mortgage doubles in 1 years time.
A lot of our clients are contacting us asking what to do both with their business and with their personal finances.
Our advice is to stay as liquid as possible, count that the stock market will go down 20% more this year.
Count with several of your customers defaulting on their invoices and several others paying very late.
Make no large investments into your business this year or the next.
Unless you have a lot of cash at hand, then you can make some really good deals by buying up troubled companies and turning them around.
And most of all , keep your cool!, we will get true this perfect storm also, but unfortunately many people will lose everything in the process, and those storys are always really sad.
There will be as always personal tragedy’s in these market corrections.
We personally feel that many billionaires like Mark Cuban and Elon Musk has pumped crypto and NFTs way to freely towards first time investors during the past 3 years time.
And many first time investors are now wiped out.
We are always here for you as small to medium sizes business owners, and we have a global network that we can assist you with many different things.
You find some of our packages in our shop in the link here below.
Okay guys we are now reliving some what the housing crash of 2008.
The difference is that in 2008 there where a lot of subprime loans that should never have been issued in the first place, but where anyway.
In 2022 the situation is quite different.
We have been warning for over 18 months time that we will see a big market correction coming when it comes to real-estate in many places around North-America.
What we saw during the pandemic was that people where buying homes unseen for record prices not doing proper due diligence on the property itself, or on the area they where buying in!.
The pandemic made it very scary for a lot people to live in the city and a lot of folks where moving out to the suburbs or to a different state altogether.
Normally when you buy a home you really think it true and most buyers are taking their time looking at different areas and many different types of homes in their price range.
Also comparing comps in the area you are looking to buy in, is usually done by almost everybody.
During 2020-2021 what happen was a feeding frenzy into home ownership and many real-estate agents used urgency into their advantage against homebuyers, and a lot of first time home buyers are now under water with their mortgages.
Many homes where put on the market for 400.000$ and sold for over 600.000$ that in it self is a huge problem.
The home was worth 400.000$ but with many buyers you had bidding wars on almost every property listed under 1 million dollars.
Also that large property investment groups where buying up hundreds of properties in one area at the time to fix them up and rent them out did not make the prices any better for first time home buyers.
With the inflation being as high as it is today in June 2022, and FED raising the rate to start with by 0.75% , will see new construction going down even more.
And with the lumber prices and part shortages we wont see as many new construction as we normally would see in the upcoming 36 months time!.
And with the mortgage rates between 6-8% in the upcoming 12 months period we are seeing a lot of difficulties’ coming the home owners way.
If you bought a house in 2019 for 400.000$ you would pay 484.000 over your 30 year mortgage with a 3% interest, now with 7% you will pay over 800.000$ for the same home.
So we are seeing the real inflation chaos hitting the market right now.
Not to mention the heating and cooling costs with the high prices of energy these days, there is very little you can do as a home owner in 2022.
How much will the houses drop in price?, we have said up to 40% in certain areas and for certain home types.
If your home is expensive to heat and expensive to buy, the market will not be there over next few years time.
Two types of real-estate will always sell and that is very high end, all cash buyers and then lower prices properties under 200K.
But most properties are not of this type.
We will see a foreclosure rate that we have not seen since 2008-2009.
But this time it will be normal families with good incomes and a good credit score, who will suffer the most.
The perfect storm is here with gas prices, heating prices, food prices, and an inflation of 10%´+.
Not to mention a lot of layoffs in the IT and better paying trades, so a lot of highly skilled workers will soon be unemployed.
And then they will not be able to pay the mortgage and two car payments.
The 2008 housing crash was fueled by the subprime (scam) where many first time home buyers was lured into buying homes with very little down, and then the interest payments ballooned after the first 18-24 months time.
Now what is the solution for all the good people who have bought a house in 2020-2022 and are now being considered house poor?.
We can as consultants do certain things online, but we always suggest that you go and see a local financial adviser to see if a chapter 7 or a chapter 11 bankruptcy is a must for you.
Because when you default on a mortgage and the property gets sold for less than it is worth you will still be sued for the rest balance.
Many people around the world, thinks that you just leave the keys with the bank and you are done with the property, nothing could be further from the truth!.
And your credit score will go down the drain very quickly.
Which will make it difficult to even rent a home in this current market.
The other way out under from a mortgage is to sell the home at a loss and then eat that cost over time.
The third option is to sit still and do a few moves, but basically you make that decision to live house poor for maybe a decade.
This means no vacation’s, you pick up that extra job and if possible rent out 1-2 rooms if you have the space.
The credit card debt is going up every single day and it feels like credit cards are the only way many people can make ends meet in June 2022.
If you bought a house for 800.000$ in 2020-2021 and it is worth 500.000$ right now, as long as you dont have to sell it right now, you have not lost any money yet.
So if you can keep up with the mortgage payments by all means do so, that is the best solution for most homeowners.
You will most likely never make money on your property but you might be able to recoup your initial investment.
And right now is not the time to buy a home, and no matter how much rent goes up, keep renting until the mortgage rates are down to 4% again.
We are always here for you as small to medium sized business owner or if you are employed and are just looking for consultants to help you move your life forward.
All of you who are looking to buy a home, but have yet to do so, read our pdf-file on everything you need to know as a first time homebuyer.
See the link here below.
If you are looking to lose-weight we can strongly suggest one of our clients programs.
So this is not a fun article to write, for our small and medium sized business owners, but here we go!.
We have a huge recession coming this fall and there is nothing we can do about it!.
We are almost living true a perfect storm right now, anybody remember Bodhi (Patrick Swayze) from Point break?, waiting for the perfect wave when the perfect storm hits.
As you see on this picture a gallon of gas was 2.29 a few years back, now it has more than doubled in price, in some places like in California it has trippled in price.
Just this fact alone creates huge price increment on all goods that needs to be shipped to stores and consumers.
And everybody using a car is effected badly from this price hike.
This is one wave of the perfect storm brewing.
The second wave is the heating costs in the winter and the cooling cost in the summer.
These bills in June 2022 are just insane for most consumers.
And there is not a lot you can do, about it!.
Food costs are a very serious issue for most working and middle class families.
What worries even more is that most families have tapped out all of their Covid-19 savings and are putting in all on plastic these days.
And you can do this for awhile but the bills will start stacking up and the credit card interest is usually on an average 15%+ , so that is not a good long-term solution.
There was over 212 million new credit cards issues in May of 2022 in US alone.
So saying that a huge recession is coming is not an understatement.
These are the few things on the personal level that effects everybody.
What is even more worrying is the component and raw material shortages that a lot of businesses are suffering from at the moment globally.
It is not even the inflation with over 30%+ price increments that are the big issue, simply put you can not get a hold of raw material and components.
Many components are today on back order for next summer 2023, and that makes it very difficult to operate a small to medium size business.
For instance we have helped two clients this spring with cast iron sourcing when both Russia and Ukraine can not currently supply any of these very much needed raw materials.
We found suppliers in China and Brazil but the price was 25% higher and the delivery time was longer.
So they can continue their production but the customers have to pay 25% more for the same goods.
When we talk about the perfect stort brewing here are the other waves forming at the moment.
Also a lot of people have invested heavily in the crypto world and in NFT:s and depending on timing of these investments many have lost anywhere from 30-99% of their investments in a short period of time.
So this also puts a very bad strain on the consumer index.
The stockmarket also taking a huge dive with the tech stocks leading the way, we have seen 30-40% drops from the start in January 2022.
So this means that people will tighten the belt more for each quarter as we go.
And we foresee a lot of restaurant’s and shops going under, due to a very low consumer spending starting in August.
Most people will try and enjoy the summer of 2022 and we will see a big decline in streaming services add ons, and general consumer spending starting in early September.
We have also started to see the housing market cool off quit a bit and if you are in a market for a house, check out our check lists on what you need to know and what you need to do, prior to buying a home, you find it in our shop in the link below.
Today a lot of first time home buyers wish they would have use this checklist to make sure they dont make any irrational home deals.
We have seen certain markets drop by over 30% in Toronto and in many places across the US, from the starting prices in January 2022
We have also started to see freezes in hiring at many companies and Klarna laid off over 10% of their staff last week!.
So let us put it all together for what is to come, when we talk about the perfect storm.
No3:Heating and cooling costs.
No4: Global Food shortages due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
No5:Components on back orders.
No6:Food prices going true the roof!.
No7:Lower consumer spending, the US economy is a 2/3 consumer spending based economy.
No8:Lay offs and companies closing and going under.
No9:Cooling off in the housing markets globally, many markets are selling 30% below January 2022 prices.
We are currently working day and night with our smaller business owners to help them prepare for what to come in the fall!.
With our medium sized business owners and hired management we are providing help with sourcing goods and material across the globe for them.
So if you are a business owner we have calculated that the inflation will slow down by December 2022 and from January 2023 we will start to see stagflation instead.
The component shortage will be around until the fall of 2023 so more than 17 months from today.
So it is time to brace yourself for impact very soon as a business owner, and try to stay a float if you can.
As always we are here to help you as a client, just send us an email if you want a special package that you can not find in our shop.
This topic is a bit sensitive and we do not want to hurt anybody’s feelings.
But as small to medium size companies business consulting firm, we need to mention this, because it is very real in 2022!.
Why are companies living?, California and New York and moving to Texas and Florida, not to mention South and North Dakota.
Los Angeles has one of the worst permit issues in the country for running a business.
Anybody who have dealt with the city of LA and when it comes to permits and other things you need as a business owner, knows how hard it is to work in LA but all of California has the same issues.
And it is not getting any better anytime soon!.
NYC is even worse than California is and they love to fine small business owners for all kinds of shitty small things.
And quite frankly most code violations are not even true, they just fine you anyway, or they send somebody to your bakery or Pizzeria, auto body shop and wait until they see a small breach and then they fine you 500-1500 dollars.
More and more small business owners understands that running a business in blue states compared to red states is very difficult and full of red tape that you need to jump over.
And it is not only the added costs for fines but also all the work that goes into running around sorting things out that brings zero revenue to your business!.
The sunshine state of Florida has figured out a way to attract new businesses and create more tax revenue and more better paying jobs in these pandemic times.
We can see that keeping the schools open was the right decision in the red states compared to the blue states, and it saved a lot of families heartbreaks by letting kids have in school learning rather than remote learning.
And many parents have move their business to Florida, so their kids can get the proper learning on time.
And the parents have taken their companies with them!.
We have to say that Ron Desantis and his team has done a stellar job in making sure that business will thrive in Florida.
Also that Florida has a full police force makes it a much safer state than California and New York for instance.
What politicians in California and New York dont seem to understand is that business owner’s wants to live and work in a safe environment.
Florida is a big winner here, and with every new home invasion in Encino, Beverly hills, The hills, Brentwood and Malibu more and more wealth will move to Florida or Texas.
Texas which also is a clear red state even if Austin could today already be considered a blue city!.
Dallas and Houston are powerhouses for business, and San Antonio and Austin are more laid back.
And more and more small business owners are asking themselves this very important question?, do i want to stay in a blue state like California and New York and always be chased by my local government or am i ready to leave?.
Some of our smaller clients ask us, would we move from California and New York to Florida or Texas?, the answer is very clear in our mind.
If you have the possibility, not everybody can do that, they have elderly parents and relatives that need help on a daily basis and if you can not take them with you, we understand that moving is not a real possibility.
If you feel that you find yourself thinking about a move you can always reach out to us at Mrlifeadvise.
We have helped many of our clients with the move from California, New York to Florida and to Texas in the past 18 months time!.
So we have the checklist ready for you.
You can email us or visit our shop and chose the business consulting package and we will take it from there.
So we are now in the end of April 2022 and the world is falling apart as we know it!.
Does it sound harsh?, it does but it is also the truth that we have never have this many problems at once that are interlinking the world around us!.
We had Covid-19 for two years time, and then he have a raging inflation caused by bad energy policies and cheap money in the US and in Europe.
On top of that we have a war raging in Ukraine that we have not seen since the second world war 80 years ago.
And if that was not enough, the US crime rate is back at late 80s and early 90s levels, never thought i see that day again!.
The gas price of 5-7 dollars is insane at the moment and families are suffering with both gas and food prices increasing much faster that their paychecks are.
We can already see that families are cancelling their subscription services for Netflix,Hbo,Disney and others to try and use that money for gas instead.
The people that we are being shown on tv and as influencers on social media are showing off money like there is no tomorrow, this is not the real world of America.
The average household income differs a lot, but lets put it at 65.000 USD pre tax for two adults from the working class and 95.000 USD pre tax for a middle class couple.
Raising kids and paying of a mortgage and car payments Ain”t easy on these incomes when the inflation is almost +10%.
The problem we have is that there is no quick fix to these issues due to us having to live with bad politician’s who are only looking out for themselves.
So no doubt in our minds that the republicans will win everywhere in the midterms and Trump will win the 2024 president election again.
The democrat’s have no future in the upcoming 5 elections.
So first Trump will win then Ron Desantis will take over after that and sit two terms.
The issue with this is that there is more than 2.5 years until TRUMP takes office again and starts drilling so the gas prices goes down again.
And a lot can happen until then.
The kind of pain the average family will feel financially in the upcoming 3 years is goanna be much worse than the financial crisis of 2008-2011.
We are goanna see the issues with gas and heating bills increase a lot during the upcoming few years time.
And the one thing we tell our business clients owners of small businesses is to buckle up, because it will be a very bumpy ride!.
The four walls will be what the American and European working and middle class will focus on and we are goanna see a lot of businesses go under who offer entertainment, because that is one cost families will not be able to carry between the years 2022-2025.
Also we will see more kids enrolling in public schools because private education will be to expensive for most families to carry.
So food ,gas, heating and mortgages will be the four walls, if we are looking ahead a few years time.
Most likely we will see the light at the end of tunnel around 2026-2027 and around 2028-2029 it will look a bit better again.
So what can we learn about this crisis?, we can learn that republicans can rule the economy and if you are not butt hurt from a few mean tweets you can live a pretty good life under the republicans.
We have also learned that the democrats a side from a few brave men and women are not able to lead America when it comes to finances and prosperity.
I agree with the republicans on most issues besides universal healthcare.
Universal healthcare is something America needs to fix, because the healthcare bill is 10X compared to the same bill for many countries in Europe based on capita.
Even the most hardcore democrats who have always voted blue!, will vote Red!, in the upcoming midterms and in the next presidential election.
What we have told all our business clients this month is the following!.
How Inflation is affecting us all!.
No1: Right now there is massive inflation raging all over the world, but the deflation will come next year.
So don`t buy to much inventory/stock with the 2022 prices in mind.
Demand will go down next year 2023.
No2: Debt!, avoid taking on more debt, rather let the deal pass, if you have to borrow for raw material and other expenses.
The market you are working in , with your small to medium size business can see a drop in demand by 50% by the end of 2022.
This is just a simple fact to keep in mind, that once the products or services you supply gets to high in price, customers wont buy anymore.
No3: Avoid to complicated deals with long-run time , since this world is moving so fast at the moment we can not say what the situation is 6-9 months from now.
One of our clients produces tractor parts and his suppliers has a 11 months delivery time to him.
We have advised him to be careful with new orders, because they can be cancelled along the way, because he has then 12-13 months delivery time out to customers.
So the inflation is kicking us all in the head at the moment and every month becomes more absurd that the last!.
This is where we are in Early May 2022, a world that is totally upside down!.
As always we are here for you small and medium sized business owners or hired management for medium sized companines.
You find some of our products in our webshop.
Contact us if you want a special package!.
We work with both domestic and global clients in many different businesses.
So just dont ask us about fashion or beauty then we can not help you LOL!, otherwise we got you covered.
So many of our clients run smaller to medium sized production or import/export businesses.
And right now their biggest issues are the inflation and delivery time from their suppliers.
Which then ripples down to our clients end-users and customers.
So here is a very good example from one of our clients who sells boat motors.
He has to wait 10 months for deliveries from his supplier for these motors.
If he has now 2 million dollars in orders in from his customers in April 2022 for deliveries in February 2023.
How can he be sure?, that these customers will still be in business in February 2023?.
And what happens to his business if half of his customers will cancel their orders midway for do not accept delivery in February 2023 when he can supply.
We have said to all of our production clients that they need to analyze each of their customers individually when we are living in this long delivery time world, and also living with high a inflation rate.
We usually tell our clients to use the proforma(prepayment) option for those clients the are unsure of.
So let us say that our client sells a motor for 10.000 dollars, his purchase price is 7.000 dollars, from his supplier.
Then a good business model is to ask the customer to pay 50% upfront(5000)dollars.
This way our client only has a 2000 dollar in exposure, if the customer is not around when the motor is ready for delivery.
This is a tough sell, we know this, but it is the only way you should work on if you are not very profitable and have a lot of money stashed aside in your rainy day fund, guess what its raining!.
Because if you as a small business owner buy products on credit and then your customers wont accept delivery, you are in a very bad place!.
Then how do you deal with the inflation, if you have 10+ months delivery time from your suppliers, which is not uncommon in April 2022.
What you do is that you make an agreement with your supplier on a fixed price, with a maximum 10% mark up option for them, during this time period.
Then you raise your price by the same 10% towards your customers.
If your supplier refuses to accept this, and they work on price level on the delivery date, you need to figure out what that price could be.
We recommend our clients to add 15% then on to the price due to inflation and in the worst case scenario they need to eat the cost themselves, if the 15% does not cover the price hikes on the delivery day.
Some bigger suppliers will honor quotes given the same year of the delivery.
And some will say that you will get the final price on the date of your delivery.
It is very difficult to be a small business owner these days with the enhanced credit risk when you do not know who will be around 10+ months from now, and who will not be around.
We advise all clients to not make a deal with a new customer unless they get at least 50% of the invoice amount upfront.
We have also told all of our clients that they need to count that 30% of their orders might end up in stock, if there is no customer alive on the other side, once they can deliver the products in the future.
With the insane energy costs and a raging war in Ukraine the world is in chaos right now!.
So you need as a small business owner to take action to protect your lives work.
So inflation and delivery security is at play globally right now and it is not pretty to watch from the sidelines.
If you ask us, which our clients do, we have told them that the recession is coming later this year and they need to be prepared.
If you need business consulting we are here for you.
You can find our different packages in our shop, and you can also email us for a customized package if you need that.
So there has been all this conversation in the last 3 weeks time that China will bailout Russia.
Because when Russia becomes a paria in the EU and in America China will magically save the Russian economy on their own.
At least this is the conversation many are having.
And it is so clear that the people who say this have no insight into the Chinese economy in the year 2022 what so ever.
Let us talk about why China can not help Russia out financially in 2022!.
China as huge problems on their hands as we speak and that is a busted real-estate economy.
Mainly started by one very large company called Evergrande.
So this is the largest real-estate developer in the world and it has a very strange story where the company goes from nothing to having a 150 billion $ in assets in 10 years time!.
The company was founded by Hui Ka Yan in Shenzhen China.
And they developed a lot in Guangzhou to start with.
China has aspired to be the largest economy in the world by 2030 and they have also wanted to be the factory for the whole world.
These two things goes hand in hand.
The real-estate market has pretty much gone up every year since 2005 in China and the way the property i sold has also created this debt monster that the Chinese government is sitting with at the moment.
The big issue for China has been that most of the real-estate built by Evergrande has been non commercial so basically apartment for Chinese workers moving in from the country side to work in the factories.
What we need to point out is that Evergrande is the well know developer, but our sources say that there are over 1000+ Chinese real-estate developers that are deeply in debt.
So with out sugar coating is basically we had a Chinese housing crash that took place in 2020 and 2021 that we have not heard so much about in the Western mainstream media.
The reason companies like Evergrande could grow so fast was that they took on huge amount of debt(loans) and at one time had over 1200+ projects going on in over 100 Chinese cities at once.
So before even one project was half ready new projects where started.
This all was to accommodate the farmers that where moving in to the cities in the early 2000s.
During this time there was a lower middle class growing in China which was estimated in 2020 before the Covid-19 hit to be around 400 million people.
And the real-estate market was the main driver for this.
So the way the Chinese real-estate market has worked is that the worker saves up enough money to put down a down payment of roughly 25% to buy an apartment that is yet to be built.
Usually many relatives save up to this down payment together to be able to buy the first apartment for the family.
But what Evergrande and many Chinese developers did was that they used this money from one project and put it into another project.
And many times there was big delays in finishing the apartments that where promised to the customer.
But this business model worked as long as the real-estate prices where going up every year.
So around 2007 a lot of Chinese normal workers and the middle class started to invest in apartments that where yet to be built with the hope of cashing out once the project was finished.
Basically they where speculating for the future.
The big problem for normal citizens in China is that you can not really leave your property with the bank if you get foreclosed on.
You will own this debt for the next 30+ years or until paid.
There is also in China an insane system that if you have a bad credit score you get blacklisted for jobs and you are not allowed to ride the high-speed trains around China.
Do not ask us why this is the case?, nobody really know what debt has to do with high-speed trains.
And this is not Amtrak, it is very modern high-speed trains that China has developed with great success over the past 20 years time.
The bigger issue is that the state has allowed these real-estate companies to build even ghost cities, where almost nobody lives and this has all been just a huge waist of money.
Then when foreign large companies builds factories in a city then comes the real-estate builders like Evergrande and they start to build apartment’s for the workers.
The big issue with this is that if a few factories closed then the real-estate market crashed because people needed to move out to where the jobs where!.
There are so many horror stories in social media in China where people are trying to give away their apartment that they bought for 500.000 $ , 5 or 10 years ago.
Because they still own 150.000-250.000 $ on it.
And thet can not pay off this debt at the moment.
The bigger issue is that as an apartment owner what ever costs are being accumulated you are still responsible for them even when you have been foreclosed on in China.
There is today in March 2022 an estimate that over 37% of all mortgage holders are under water with their mortgages in China.
And this is the ticking financial time bomb in China.
What makes the real-estate crisis so very bad in China is that a lot of people have invested all their money and even taken out loans and handed this money over to Evergrande and others for apartments that have yet to be built.
So basically these investors(apartments buyers) have lost all of their savings and are also deeply in debt!.
If we look at the Evergrande stock it has gone down -89% in one year, and it is down -79% in 5 years time.
This is also one of the reasons why the Chinese state have asked the main owner and Founder of Evergrande to cover with his private wealth some of the foreign bond payments that the company has defaulted on.
At this point in time the Chinese state is trying to keep Evergrande from crashing into a big black hole, and if they would allow Evergrande and others to crash that would be a 20x compared to Lehman brothers default!.
So this is one of the really serious economic things going on in China when it comes to their domestic financial issues.
The second really large and difficult financial matter for the Chinese state is that many Japanese and Western companies have been leaving China for the past 5 years time.
This just increased more after the Covid-19 Outbreak where companies saw their logistic chains break when China could not supply parts.
And not to mention the price increasments in container shipping from China to the US and Europe.
This alone has gone up around 7 times of what it was in January 2020.
So a container that cost 2.000$ to ship in January 2020 is now 14.000$ for the same items to ship.
This also means that a lot of importers might not want to take any orders when the freight cost is so high at the moment.
So many Chinese workers are also currently unemployed when factories have and are closing every day moving the job’s back to Japan, South-Korea or the West.
Chinese communist party has a lot of of internal problems also to deal with, there are power struggles behind the scenes with to flanks going at it!.
So the Kremlin and Russians banking on China coming in as some kind of savior to Russia, those dreams will not come true.
China will do a few things for Russia and they are not pretty, looked upon from the outside.
The major thing that China will do is to buy all the raw materials, Oil and gas that Russia can produce.
But China will buy with big discounts, so if Russia gets today from the US and from Europe 100$ for something China will only pay 70$ for the same item!.
And Putin and Russia has no way of really standing firm on prices towards China.
The second thing that China will do is that they will supply Russia a lot of products like components that will hold much lower quality compared to if Russia would buy these in Europe or from the US.
The third thing that China will be looking at is to get access to Russian females, meaning that the Chinese state is looking to move Russian girls to China for marriage.
Since there is a huge imbalance in China between the two genders.
Any sane person who has an economical background or has worked in the commercial global trade are shaking their heads as we speak!.
The Russian economy has been shaky since 2014 when Russia when in to Crimea the first time and some sanctions where put on Russia.
But that was a small wind blowing compared to this hurricane.
Russia has destroyed it own economy in less than 30 days and this will linger for decades to come.
So 30 years of financial progress in Russia, has been destroyed by Russia itself in less than 30 days time.
Books will be written about this topic for decades to come.
Most private Russian business owners are very depressed right now since they know that their business will not be able to work with the EU or the US for many years to come.
But this thing with letting Putin get away with everything for the past 15 years time is also a lot of their own fault.
The middle class has supported Putin in many elections, and here we are!.
So basically Russia is not goanna get the help and support they believe they will from China because China is always only looking out for themselves.
And with the domestic problems that China has now, Russia will be a country that pretty much will take their marching orders from Beijing for the upcoming two decades at least!.
Yes there are young brave Russians trying to fight Kremlin and Putin, but the middle class and the middle aged people are not hitting the streets, and we do believe that 60%+ are supporting these war crimes that Russia is inflicting upon Ukraine at this moment.
So when you hear somebody say that China will bail out Russia and we in the West are the big losers, ask them about the domestic internal problems with the real-estate crash that is going on in China at the moment and listen what they have to say about that?.
It is very clear that most people do not understand the Chinese economy, and they just speculate that China is so financially powerful at the moment.
Basically China is ending its own middle class as we speak due to this financial real-estate crash that is going on at the moment and the cracks has just started to show!.
We can write many articles on the Chinese and Russian economy, but here is a short version on why China will not be able to bailout Russia in the way most people expect them to do.
Our business clients are lucky, due to the fact that we have people in our company that has worked in both Russia and China for the past 40 years time.
So we can truly support our clients, every step of the way.
Today one of our clients could not get a shipping date from China due to Russia not allowing Chinese rail containers to go true Russia towards Europe.
We are talking about at least 1 million containers per year that is suppose to go true Russia.
So now we have to sort out another route for our client.
As always you can find our consulting support and other products in our shop, see the link here below.
So here comes an explanation about the Russian economy from 1991 up to 2022 and the Ukrainian invasion.
Our oldest management business consultant Lars Eriksson born 1942 is the person giving our clients and readers his thought on the Russian economy.
Hi!,everybody my name is Lars Eriksson and i have worked as a management and business consultant for the past 50 years time.
I was born in Stockholm in 1942 into a poor working class family.
I moved to Los Angeles in 1969 and i lived in the states until 1992.
In 1992 i moved back to Stockholm and i got a job offer in 1993 in Moscow, helping American and European smaller to medium sized businesses to help them establish there operations in Russia.
You have to remember that i was very experienced in global business at the age of 51 when i moved to Russia.
But nothing could have prepared me to work in this chaotic gangster wild west country that Russia was in 1993.
The Russian economy has never been stable to begin with!.
Also we should all remember that Russia had no internet in 1993, so you had to meet people face to face, and build contacts that way.
I have personally meet many of the people you now see on the tv OR read about is magazines and newspapers when they where up and coming.
I will not name any names, but i have meet almost all the top guys both in the political and business world during my years in Russia from 1993 to 2014.
Russia has always been very corrupt and nothing got ever done without the all mighty dollar bills.
I remember by first big project for a UK based company who wanted to establish an office in Moscow with a small warehouse/plant to start conducting business.
You had to pay officials for everything back then, to get electricity and water not to mention garbage collection.
A lot of people talked about the Russian mob and, yes they where a problem for a lot of our clients back then.
But they where like kindergarten kids when comparing to the corrupt officials from the Russian parlament the Duma, or local officials you had to deal with to get anything done in Russia.
The Russian economy grew a lot from 1991 up until the ruble crashed in August 1998.
Ownership on land and buildings was always very unclear, when the companies i helped set up shop in Russia, opened up their operations on Russian soil.
I can tell you that more often than not, when one of our clients had built a small factory on land they had bought in Russia.
Some local politician or shady businessman showed up with an official document stating that they where the rightful owner of the land the factory was standing on!.
And then the negotiating started, where he asked for 1 million dollars and that was usually negotiated down to 200.000 dollars over time.
Many companies where told by the firm i was working for that the ownership of land was very unclear in Russia, and that these type of claims would come up more often than not.
There was a great hope among a lot of Russians that Russia would take a huge step towards Europe and America in the mid 90s and even up until around 2006.
But after our war criminal Putin came into power in late 1999 he made it very clear that he was not a friend towards foreign investors, that wanted to invest heavily into Russia.
And already around 2006-2008 many western companies understood the ownership risk with owning a company in Russia.
And many smaller to medium sized western companies pulled out of Russia or has today just a small office/warehouse/production type of business in Russia.
The big companies like McDonald’s, Volvo and IKEA they had also issues in Russia, but they where big enough to sort true them from a high level.
Most of the companies that i helped from America or Europe where companies that had everywhere from, 10 to 200 employees in Russia.
And these companies where used to the protection and laws in Europe and in America, so many where completely unprotected by local government or Russian national laws.
Every business owner has at least two bodyguards at all times and the office has security personal always on sight.
One very interesting aspect of the Russian economy was that there was no support from the STATE to support foreign investments from small to medium sized companies coming in and creating high paying jobs and tax revenues.
And this is where i feel that Russia made a big mistake in not protecting and helping smaller to medium sized companies expand their operations in Russia.
Basically you where on your own, when you invested 1 or 2 million dollars into your Russian company.
And you had to depend on fixers like me, or Russian fixers who could help you navigate the labyrint that the Russian bureaucracy was and still to this day very much is!.
Russian economy is like a very powerful BMW 7 SERIES that they started driving and the switched to gear two and three, and this is where they stopped!.
They where never ever able to switch gears after driving on gear 3.
So while there was a quit decent amount of Russians in Moscow, St Petersburg and other bigger cities in Russia who where able under Putin to become the Russian middle class, they still to this day only make around 40% of what the American middle class worker does.
It became also very clear to all foreign investors like Bill Browder from Hermitage capital and others around 2010 that unless you paid Putin and his friends a lot of money, you had no future in Russia.
The Russian middle class is a lot to blame for going along with Putin and his cronies.
I remember being beaten up in Moscow by a member of the duma and his two bodyguard’s for not allowing them to shake down a company from Dallas on my watch.
So Putin allowed a lot of gangster politicians to shake down foreign businesses from day one, and this has never stopped.
So the Russian mentality is that if i am doing well fuck! everybody-else, so there is no nation building going on in Russia and it never has had any interest in making sure that the whole country moves forward together!.
So when we talk about the Russian economy it is based on raw materials and Oil.
So oil and gas and natural resources is over 70% on the total GDP in Russia.
And this also means that Russia has wasted so many decades to improve other industrial products and businesses that could have balanced the GDP better.
One should also remember that 50% of this money is stolen by Oligarchs and Putin every year.
In the last decade the IT sector has grown quite a lot and there has been smaller silicon valleys popping up here and there all over Russia.
BUT! they have mostly lived on working for US and European companies in and from Russia.
This is now all gone in less than two weeks time.
And with all social media like twitter, instagram and Meta/Facebook being banned in Russia there is a new iron curtain coming down a new USSR 2.0 that we are seeing take place in front of our eyes.
So some American politicians have said that Russia is a gas station disguised as a country, which i quite rude, but there is some truth to it!.
We should also remember that the Russian economy with 140 million people is pretty much on the same level GDP wise as Spain.
And Spain with 45 million residents have no Oil or gas to sell.
If we also take into consideration how poor the country is outside of the big cities where up to 50 million Russians have no indoor plumbing.
Europe and America has nuked the Russian economy back 30+ years at least.
And now the Russian population have to pay the price for supporting a dictator that Putin truly is!.
I have seen that many Europeans and Americans have high hopes that the people closest to Putin will stop this or over throw the government.
I am not hopeful, because the Russians that are against this Ukrainian invasion are to few and have no real power to do anything about this.
Alexei Navalny was the last hope for a candidate that could get Russia back on track again”.
He is in prison and wont get realesed for many years to come.
And we see some very brave Russians protesting against Putins war, but they are way to few.
Only if 15-30 million Russian would start protesting on the streets every Saturday, could we see a move on Putin and his cronies.
I do not see that happen anytime soon.
Life will not change so much in the country side, other than pensions will be reduced by 25-30% In the upcoming year.
But in the big cities we will see a lot of middle class Russians that will once again feel how it is to live and work in the USSR 2.0.
Their living standard will drop by at least 50% already this year!.
I personally feel really sorry for all the Russians that wants to be a part of the Western world and have been protesting against the war and Putin.
They will also now have to pay the price, for one war criminals believes that he can take over Ukraine in 2022!.
The Russia we saw between 1991 and 2021 all the progress that was made even if it was no where enough, is all gone in two weeks time.
You have to understand that in 1998-1999 the whole world was helping Russia move forward and the trade was still booming, today no company wants to touch the Russian market.
Many people say that China will save Russia and its economy, it wont happen.
China will always look out for number one ,which is China.
And for sure they will buy Russian oil and gas and other minerals but for a big discount!.
And i also believe strongly that the US and Europe will still buy Russian oil and gas for many years to come.
But the other businesses and all foreign investments are gone from Russia and it is not coming back anytime soon!.
Even if the Russian people would find away to get rid of Putin and his cronies, the PR damage is so big that it will take at least a decade to get companies back to Russia.
And here once again all the missed opportunities in the last 3 decades comes into play again, that the Russian economy is so small that a lot of foreign companies do not need the PR headache that Russia is today.
I feel very sad that in 2022 we see bombs fall on cities again in Europe, I WAS BORN IN WAR TIMES 1942, THE SECOND WORLD WAR.
And i had hoped to see no more wars in Europe in my life time.
But Russia(Putin) created this mess and everyone including Russians have to suffer for it.
And if you do not understand that the Iron curtain has fallen down already then you are blind.
The Russian rubel is cheaper than toilet paper at the moment so that says it all!.
Good buy Russia, it was nice to know you for 3 decades.
The things i learned and saw in Russia has made me a better person, and i have a better understaning for why some countries never ever will be truly able to be part on the Western world.
We can all hope for a miracle when it comes to Russia, but i do not hold my breath!.
Take care out there.
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